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NASA Crew-1 - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 14, 2020 00:44 - 00:54 UTC (19:44 - 19:54 ET)

Issued

Thu Nov 12, 2020 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Tropical Storm Eta has made landfall just south of Cedar Key, Florida. Eta will accelerate northeastward today and exit Florida near Jacksonville shortly after noon as it merges with a mid-latitude system along the Eastern Seaboard. Conditions will gradually improve through the day across the Space Coast, with rain chances and winds dropping off significantly after sunset. On Friday, a weak frontal boundary will push through the Spaceport, clearing away much of the cloud cover and turning winds northerly. This boundary will likely begin moving back northward on Saturday as winds become easterly, developing a few showers. The primary launch weather concern Saturday evening will be the cumulus clouds and showers along the boundary. On Sunday, conditions remain much the same as the next frontal system moves into the Southeastern U.S., adding instability to the stalled boundary over Central Florida. The primary launch weather concerns for Sunday remain the showers and cumulus clouds associated with the boundary.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow