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StarlinkV1.0-L17 - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Mar 2, 2021 23:53 - 01:54 UTC (18:53 - 20:54 ET)

Issued

Tue Mar 2, 2021 at 14:45 UTC (09:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A weak cool front is currently draped across Central Florida this morning, generating a few light showers that are moving from west to east across the peninsula. This boundary is expected to wave across the state today as an area of low pressure develops along the front over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The boundary lifts back north as a warm front this afternoon and evening, bringing the threat for showers and a storm or two across interior Central Florida that will push towards the Spaceport during the launch window. The primary concern for this evening’s launch attempt will be cumulus clouds and the surface electric field rule both associated with showers. Surface low is forecast to track across North Florida and into the Atlantic overnight, cranking the boundary back through the state early Wednesday afternoon. Despite some timing differences with this feature, models agree with the front being well south of the Spaceport by Wednesday evening. Cool and breezy north-northwest winds will be bringing in drier air with post-frontal stratocumulus and lingering high clouds in place. The primary weather concerns for Wednesday evening launch attempts will be a small threat for cumulus cloud violations.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow