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Transporter-2 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 25, 2021 18:56 - 19:54 UTC (14:56 - 15:54 ET)

Issued

Wed Jun 23, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The subtropical ridge axis remains south of Central Florida, creating southwesterly flow hindering the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze each day. This creates higher chances for storms developing near the Spaceport, as well as driving inland storms eastward each afternoon and evening. Elsewhere a boundary in North Florida will gradually erode as the associated low pressure area pulls northward. As this boundary erodes, the subtropical ridge axis will begin to move north of the Space Coast. There is uncertainty on the timing of this transition, but most of the models have it north of the Spaceport on Friday. This will mean less storm coverage as the east coast sea breeze moves rapidly inland and drives any storms westward. The primary launch weather concerns Friday afternoon are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Thick Layer Cloud Rule associated with the lingering boundary. On Saturday, models agree the subtropical ridge axis will be well north of the Spaceport and only scant remnants of the lingering boundary will remain. The primary weather concerns for a Saturday afternoon launch attempt are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Anvil Cloud Rules from storms developing inland.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow