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Transporter-2 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 25, 2021 18:56 - 19:54 UTC (14:56 - 15:54 ET)

Issued

Tue Jun 22, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The subtropical ridge axis is situated south of Central Florida, creating southwesterly flow that hinders the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. This creates higher chances for storms developing nearby, as well as driving inland storms east each afternoon and evening. Elsewhere a boundary in the Southeast U.S. will gradually erode as the remnants of Tropical Storm Claudette pull northward. As this boundary erodes, the subtropical ridge axis will begin to move north of the Space Coast. There is uncertainty on the timing of this transition, but most of the models have it north of the Spaceport on Friday. This should mean much less storm coverage as the east coast sea breeze will rapidly move inland and push storms westward. The primary launch weather concerns for a Friday afternoon attempt are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Thick Layer Cloud Rule. On Saturday, models are in agreement the subtropical ridge axis will be north of the Spaceport and the boundary will be further eroded. The primary weather concerns for Saturday are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Anvil Cloud Rules.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow