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TurkSat-5A - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 7 - Jan 8, 2021

Issued

Thu Jan 7, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A strong low pressure system is moving across the Deep South this morning with its associated cold front draped along the Central Gulf Coast. This system will progress eastward through the day, with the cold front expected in North Florida this evening. Models continue to show the front breaking up as it crosses the state this evening, with the boundary itself and notable precipitation chances not expected to arrive until after the launch window. However, increasing clouds during the window will remain a watch item. The primary concern this evening remains cumulus clouds and thick clouds, especially in the latter half of the window. The front will move through the Spaceport before daybreak Friday, though the influence of its parent low will keep a few showers in the forecast through the day. Conditions will be cooler and drier by evening, but scattered low topped cumulus and stratocumulus will linger into the launch window. While clouds are not expected to be tall, the cool airmass in place will make it easier for any more robust cumulus development to reach to colder temperatures. The primary weather concern for a launch attempt Friday evening will be cumulus clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow