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TurkSat-5A - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 7 - Jan 8, 2021

Issued

Wed Jan 6, 2021 at 14:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A large area of high pressure stretching from near the Great Lakes into the southeast will shift eastward today, veering local winds out of the northeast and modifying temperatures. The next low pressure system, currently developing across Texas, is forecast to move along the Gulf coast through the day on Thursday, with the main surface low moving offshore the Carolinas Thursday night. The associated cold front moves into the Florida peninsula late Thursday night, though it is not expected to arrive until after the launch window. However, the front itself will be preceded by increasing clouds during the launch window. The primary weather concern for a Thursday evening launch attempt will be cumulus clouds and thick clouds. The front will cross the Spaceport early on Friday, with another round of cool and drier air arriving behind it through the day. Left behind the front will be scattered low topped cumulus and stratocumulus that will linger into the launch window. While clouds are not expected to be tall, the cool airmass in place will make it easier for any more robust cumulus development to reach to colder temperatures. The primary weather concern for a launch attempt Friday evening will be cumulus clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow