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TurkSat-5A - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 6 - Jan 7, 2021

Issued

Mon Jan 4, 2021 at 17:00 UTC (12:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure will build across the central and eastern US through mid-week, bringing cool and dry conditions the next few days. Temperatures will gradually modify by Wednesday as winds turn onshore. An active southern stream upper level jet will bring broken high clouds that are expected to be too cold to be a thick cloud concern. The primary weather concern for a Wednesday evening launch attempt will be scattered cumulus clouds from the Atlantic moving onshore. The next storm system will move along the Gulf coast through the day on Thursday, with the main surface low expected to cross Georgia into the Carolinas Thursday night. The associated cold front will move through the Florida panhandle on Thursday, moving through the peninsula late Thursday night. While the front itself is not forecast to arrive until after the Thursday evening launch window, increasing mid and high clouds and the potential for a passing shower will precede the boundary during the window. The primary weather concern for a Thursday evening launch attempt will be cumulus clouds and thick mid-level clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow