VCLS DEMO 2 - L-0 Forecast
ASTRA
Valid Period
Feb 5, 2022 18:00 - 21:00 UTC (13:00 - 16:00 ET)
Issued
Sat Feb 5, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)
Forecast Discussion
A cold front moved through this morning, switching winds from the north, with sustained speeds between 15-20 kt and gusts near 25kt. A few light rain showers still moving through the Cape should clear out by 10-11L, leaving behind just an overcast stratocumulus deck through the afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually decrease by this afternoon to 15 kt sustained with gusts to 20kt. Therefore, the primary concern for launch is liftoff winds with a slight secondary concern of the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For the backup forecast, a surface low develops off the coast of the Spaceport along the frontal boundary, leaving a higher chance for more convective rain showers. Models are inconsistent on the exact location of this low, and if it forms slightly further offshore, as some models are now indicating, the forecast could improve. Therefore, the backup day POV remains at 60% for now with the primary concerns being the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Surface Electric Fields Rule.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Liftoff Winds
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Solar Activity | N/A |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Surface Electric Fields Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Solar Activity | N/A |