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VCLS DEMO 2 - L-0 Forecast

ASTRA

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Valid Period

Feb 5, 2022 18:00 - 21:00 UTC (13:00 - 16:00 ET)

Issued

Sat Feb 5, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A cold front moved through this morning, switching winds from the north, with sustained speeds between 15-20 kt and gusts near 25kt. A few light rain showers still moving through the Cape should clear out by 10-11L, leaving behind just an overcast stratocumulus deck through the afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually decrease by this afternoon to 15 kt sustained with gusts to 20kt. Therefore, the primary concern for launch is liftoff winds with a slight secondary concern of the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For the backup forecast, a surface low develops off the coast of the Spaceport along the frontal boundary, leaving a higher chance for more convective rain showers. Models are inconsistent on the exact location of this low, and if it forms slightly further offshore, as some models are now indicating, the forecast could improve. Therefore, the backup day POV remains at 60% for now with the primary concerns being the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Surface Electric Fields Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityN/A

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityN/A