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VCLS DEMO 2 - L-4 Days

Astra

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Valid Period

Feb 5, 2022 18:00 - 21:00 UTC (13:00 - 16:00 ET)

Issued

Tue Feb 1, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Drier weather with a warming trend is expected this week as mid-level ridging builds into central FL through Friday. At the surface, the ridge builds to our north, increasing the pressure gradient gradually by mid-week, bringing gusty winds as high as 20-22kt from southeast on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. This stronger onshore flow could bring a few light rain showers moving onshore. By Friday, winds weaken and become from the south ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast. For launch day Saturday, long range models are still divergent. The GFS and GALWEM models keep the cold over north FL Sat, bringing continued favorable weather to the Spaceport and low chances for any weather violations. The European model brings a shallow cold front through the Spaceport at some point during the count or launch window, bringing scattered showers with higher chances of Cumulus Cloud Rule violations, and winds from the north potentially reaching 15-20kt. This forecast leans more towards the favorable GFS and GALWEM solution, but keeps isolated showers and a slightly elevated POV as a blend. The backup day 48-hr forecast will be included tomorrow.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityN/A