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CST-100 OFT-2 - L-0 Forecast

Atlas V

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Valid Period

May 19, 2022 22:45 - 23:05 UTC (18:45 - 19:05 ET)

Issued

Thu May 19, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant change to the forecast reasoning. Isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, are expected to form along and west of Interstate 95 this afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops and moves inland. Overall, coverage of these showers and storms should be slightly lower relative to Wednesday, thus the probability of violation for today’s launch opportunity has been dropped to 20%. Conditions are still expected to deteriorate significantly Friday afternoon and evening as a plume of deeper moisture moves upward from South Florida. As a result, the forecast remains more pessimistic for the backup opportunity with higher probabilities of violations of the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rules, and Flight through Precipitation constraint.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow