Back to Forecasts

CST-100 OFT-2 - L-1 Day

Atlas V

View PDF

Valid Period

May 19, 2022 22:45 - 23:05 UTC (18:45 - 19:05 ET)

Issued

Wed May 18, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant change to the forecast reasoning. The coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected to remain isolated to scattered both today and tomorrow – and predominantly west of Interstate 95 where the sea breezes are more likely to interact. For MLP Roll activities today, mainly dry conditions are forecast along the immediate coast with a small chance, less than 20%, of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts west of the area. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, with isolated afternoon activity expected to develop near or just west of the launch complex, bringing a chance of a Cumulus Cloud Rule and/or Anvil Cloud Rule violation during the count. Precipitation chances increase substantially on Friday as winds increase out of the south and draw a plume of deeper moisture upward from the Caribbean. As a result, the forecast remains more pessimistic for the backup opportunity with higher probabilities of violations of the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rules, and Flight through Precipitation constraint.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow