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CST-100 OFT-2 - L-3 Days

Atlas V

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Valid Period

May 19, 2022 22:45 - 23:05 UTC (18:45 - 19:05 ET)

Issued

Mon May 16, 2022 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant change to the forecast reasoning. Central Florida is expected to continue to gradually ease into the summer convective season this week as our local weather becomes predicated on the placement of the Atlantic high pressure area, amount of available moisture, as well as the interaction of the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. Limited moisture and south to southwest steering flow will lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Thursday – with the greatest concentration predominantly west of Interstate 95 where the sea breezes are more likely to collide. For MLP Roll activities on Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast with only a small chance, less than 20%, of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops and moves inland. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday, with isolated afternoon activity expected to develop near or just west of the launch complex, bringing a chance of a Cumulus Cloud Rule and/or Anvil Cloud Rule violation during the count. Precipitation chances increase substantially on Friday as winds increase out of the south and draw a plume of deeper moisture upward from the Caribbean. As a result, the forecast remains more pessimistic for the backup opportunity with higher probabilities of violations of the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Layer Rule, and Anvil Cloud Rules.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Solar ActivityLow