CST-100 OFT-2 - L-4 Days
Atlas V
Valid Period
May 19, 2022 22:45 - 23:05 UTC (18:45 - 19:05 ET)
Issued
Sun May 15, 2022 at 15:00 UTC (11:00 ET)
Forecast Discussion
Central Florida is expected to continue to gradually ease into the summer convective season this week as our local weather becomes predicated on the placement of the Atlantic high pressure area, amount of available moisture, as well as the interaction of the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. Isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop each afternoon this week – with the greatest concentration predominantly west of Interstate 95 where the sea breezes are more likely to collide in the light south to southwest steering flow. For MLP Roll activities on Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast with only a small chance, less than 20%, of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday, with isolated afternoon activity expected to develop near or just west of the launch complex, bringing a chance of a Cumulus Cloud Rule and/or Anvil Cloud Rule violation during the count. Precipitation chances increase substantially on Friday as winds increase out of the south and draw a plume of deeper moisture upward from the Caribbean. As a result, the forecast is more pessimistic for the backup opportunity with higher probabilities of violations of the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Layer Rule, and Anvil Cloud Rules.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Anvil Cloud Rules
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Thick Cloud Layer Rule
- Anvil Cloud Rules
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Moderate |
| Solar Activity | Low |