GOES-T - L-4 Forecast

Dry weather and above average temperatures are expected through Sunday as high pressure lingers over central Florida. For Roll Day on Monday, a cold front is expected to move through, likely in the afternoon. This will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the Spaceport in the afternoon or evening, especially along the coast and just offshore. For Tuesday into Wednesday, model guidance diverges. The ECMWF and GALWEM/UKMET stall the front just to our south and develop a coastal trough or even closed low right off the coast, lingering until possibly even mid Wednesday before clearing out. This would bring scattered showers moving onshore, with the potential for elevated field mills and breezy winds 15-20kt, depending on exactly where the surface trough or low develops. The GFS stalls the front further south with lower chances for showers Tue-Wed. Either way, lightning chances on launch or backup day are low at this time, being on the north side of the stalled boundary. This forecast leans more towards the ECMWF and GALWEM for the primary and backup launch days, with the expectation that the stalled boundary to our south will start to dissipate by Wednesday with slightly lower chances and coverage of showers in the area.