SBIRS GEO-6 - L-2 Days

There has been no change to the forecast reasoning. The return to a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues today as atmospheric moisture builds across the area. Though the greatest coverage of storms is again expected over the interior, there is an opportunity for precipitation and lightning advisories later today as the sea breeze pushes slowly inland. A slightly earlier start to the sea breeze on Wednesday suggests a threat of late morning or early afternoon showers and storms, with activity focusing west of Complex 41 through the day. Thereafter, the Atlantic ridge will strengthen a bit and push north of the area, bringing a return to deep easterly flow by Thursday morning’s launch window. Isolated showers are expected to develop over the nearshore Atlantic waters toward sunrise, and there is a small concern for a Cumulus Cloud Rule violation during the initial launch attempt. In the event of a 24-hour delay, the probability of violation is even higher due to increased moisture and an even better chance of early-morning shower and storm activity over the Atlantic.