SBIRS GEO-6 - L-4 Days

An unusually dry and warm air mass that has been in place since last week will linger for a couple of more days. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain well below normal through Monday. Atmospheric moisture is forecast to gradually increase into midweek, which when combined with light south to southwest flow due to a suppressed Atlantic ridge axis, will bring a slightly better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thus, during MLP Roll operations on Tuesday, isolated storms are forecast to develop near the coast early in the afternoon before the inland-moving sea breeze concentrates activity west of I-95 later in the day. Forecast models indicate the Atlantic ridge will re-strengthen and push north of the area later in the week, bringing a return to deep easterly flow by Thursday morning’s launch window. Typically, onshore winds bring a chance of showers, and even thunderstorms, in the morning; however, yet another swath of dry air is forecast to move over the area, resulting in more favorable launch weather conditions during the initial launch attempt. At this time, there is only a small concern for isolated cumulus clouds and showers over the nearshore Atlantic waters, and the probability of a weather-related violation has been set at 20%. In the event of a 24-hour delay, the probability of violation is a bit higher due to increased moisture and a better chance of early-morning shower and storm activity over the Atlantic.