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SBIRS GEO-6 - L-3 Days

Atlas V

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Valid Period

Aug 4, 2022 10:29 - 11:09 UTC (06:29 - 07:09 ET)

Issued

Mon Aug 1, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Despite the fact that atmospheric moisture will begin to increase today, any showers and storms that develop are likely to be across the interior, i.e. west of Interstate 95. During MLP Roll Operations tomorrow, precipitation chances will return to the Spaceport as isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop in the afternoon along the inland-moving sea breeze. Thereafter, the Atlantic ridge will re-strengthen and push north of the area later in the week, bringing a return to deep easterly flow by Thursday morning’s launch window. While a swath of drier air is still forecast to cross the area, moisture is expected to begin increasing right around the time of the initial launch attempt. As a result, the probability of a weather-related violation has been increased to 30% as isolated early-morning showers will bring a small chance of a Cumulus Cloud Rule violation. In the event of a 24-hour delay, the probability of violation is higher due to increased moisture and an even better chance of early-morning shower and storm activity over the Atlantic.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow