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USSF-8 - L-3 Days

Atlas V

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Valid Period

Jan 20 - Jan 21, 2022

Issued

Tue Jan 18, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Continued pleasant weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure migrates over the peninsula and into the western Atlantic. The forecast becomes increasingly complex late in the week as a cold front approaches the area on Friday. Forecast models now indicate the potential for an area of low pressure to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and ride eastward along the front – resulting in increased chances of showers and perhaps even thunderstorms beginning during or after the launch window. Given the unusual uncertainty in the weather pattern, little change has been made to the forecast; however, it should be noted that significant adjustments may become necessary with future updates. At this time, the primary concerns for launch day remain the Cumulus Cloud and Thick Cloud Layer Rules as it appears the best chance for showers and storms will hold off until after the launch window. Breezy north winds are forecast to develop on the backside of the front Saturday, drawing in drier air into the region and resulting in slightly more favorable launch conditions in the event of a 24-hour delay.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearNot Cited
Booster Recovery WeatherNot Cited
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearNot Cited
Booster Recovery WeatherNot Cited
Solar ActivityLow