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Sirius XM-7 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 13, 2020 16:21 - 18:22 UTC (11:21 - 13:22 ET)

Issued

Sat Dec 12, 2020 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure will be centered across the Western and Central Atlantic to start of the weekend as the next cold front moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico. The approaching system is not expected to have a direct impact on Saturday’s weather, but increasing onshore flow will bring a weak low level disturbance across the region that will lead to periods of light showers across the Spaceport through the day. The front in the Gulf is forecast to wash out across North Florida on Sunday, leaving unsettled conditions across the Spaceport for a late Sunday morning launch attempt. The primary concern will be cumulus clouds associated with showers in the vicinity of the Spaceport. Increasing high clouds are currently expected to be too cold for a Thick Cloud Layer concern. A second and stronger system is forecast to move across the southeastern US late Sunday into Monday. Models are in better agreement today that the associated cold front will move into Central Florida just after the backup launch window on Monday. Enough uncertainty remains in the potential for mid-level clouds and showers during the window that there are no changes to the ongoing forecast. The consensus continues to suggest Cumulus Clouds associated with showers will be the main concern with a low potential for a mid-level Thick Cloud Layer during the window.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow