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COSMO-SkyMed - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 27, 2022 23:06 - 23:17 UTC (18:06 - 18:17 ET)

Issued

Tue Jan 25, 2022 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A weather disturbance currently located across the central Gulf of Mexico will move east towards Florida today, leading to deteriorating weather conditions. Showers associated with this feature are likely to overspread the region later today and continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. As this system moves off the Atlantic coast by Thursday, deep moisture through the atmosphere gradually gets stripped away, but robust onshore flow will still support scattered low-topped showers moving towards the coast. Thus, the main weather concerns for launch day are lingering cumulus clouds and showers embedded in this low-level onshore flow as well as breezy conditions during liftoff. For delay day, a deep upper level trough and associated cold front will dive into the southeastern U.S., switching the low-level winds from out of the northwest. Layered moisture associated with this system suggests the potential for thick clouds as well as scattered showers embedded within lower cumulus clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow