COSMO-SkyMed - L-2 Days
Falcon 9
Valid Period
Jan 27, 2022 23:06 - 23:17 UTC (18:06 - 18:17 ET)
Issued
Tue Jan 25, 2022 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)
Forecast Discussion
A weather disturbance currently located across the central Gulf of Mexico will move east towards Florida today, leading to deteriorating weather conditions. Showers associated with this feature are likely to overspread the region later today and continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. As this system moves off the Atlantic coast by Thursday, deep moisture through the atmosphere gradually gets stripped away, but robust onshore flow will still support scattered low-topped showers moving towards the coast. Thus, the main weather concerns for launch day are lingering cumulus clouds and showers embedded in this low-level onshore flow as well as breezy conditions during liftoff. For delay day, a deep upper level trough and associated cold front will dive into the southeastern U.S., switching the low-level winds from out of the northwest. Layered moisture associated with this system suggests the potential for thick clouds as well as scattered showers embedded within lower cumulus clouds.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Liftoff Winds
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Thick Cloud Layer Rule
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Moderate |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |