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CRS-25 - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jul 14, 2022 00:39 - 00:49 UTC (20:39 - 20:49 ET)

Issued

Thu Jul 14, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant changes to today’s forecast. Today, the ridge axis will slowly migrate northward and begin to shift low level winds to a southerly direction. This will allow the east coast seabreeze to migrate further inland by the afternoon and evening hours, triggering the bulk of the diurnal thunderstorms farther to our west. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out from an eastward moving outflow, but most of the activity is still expected to remain inland during the evening hours. With upper level winds coming from the east/northeast, this will also help keep any anvil clouds associated with the storms to the west. Thus, the primary concerns are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Flight Through Precipitation. For tomorrow and Saturday, the overall setup generally looks similar to Thursday, but moisture and instability will increase by Saturday as an upper level feature moves in from the southeast. The main concerns remain the same as on Thursday, with the addition of the Anvil Cloud Rules on Saturday as upper level winds shift westerly.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow