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CRS-25 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jul 14, 2022 00:39 - 00:49 UTC (20:39 - 20:49 ET)

Issued

Tue Jul 12, 2022 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The active pattern with afternoon storms and southwest flow will remain in place for the next few days as the subtropical ridge axis remains to our south. By Thursday, the ridge axis will migrate northward and shifting low level winds south/southeasterly. This will allow the east coast seabreeze to migrate inland by the afternoon and evening hours, triggering the bulk of the diurnal thunderstorms farther to our west. While an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, most of the activity is expected to remain inland during the evening hours. With upper level winds coming from the east/northeast, this will also help keep any anvil clouds associated with the storms to the west. Thus, the primary concerns are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Flight Through Precipitation. On Friday and Saturday, the overall setup generally looks similar to Thursday, but moisture and instability will increase as an upper level feature moves in from the southeast. The POV is slightly higher and main concerns remain the same as on Thursday.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow