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Intelsat G-33/G-34 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Oct 8, 2022 23:04 - 00:15 UTC (19:04 - 20:15 ET)

Issued

Fri Oct 7, 2022 at 22:00 UTC (18:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A strong area of high pressure will continue to move out of the Central US to start the weekend, settling west to east across the southeastern US. The increasing pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressure across the NW Caribbean will result in breezy east-northeast flow. As the high center will move eastward this weekend, it will push a cool front through the state where it will stall out across South Florida early next week. The approach of the boundary along with moisture creeping northward will bring an increasing threat for Atlantic showers into the weekend. The shower threat will remain relatively low for a Saturday evening launch attempt, though more cumulus clouds will be around during the window than today. However, these showers are expected to remain low- topped and the chance for a Cumulus Cloud rule violation to be very low. The front is expected to be moving through Central Florida on Sunday, bringing isolated onshore moving showers at times during the day, which will continue into the launch window Sunday evening. While these showers are still expected to remain fairly low-topped and quick moving, they will lead to a higher threat for Cumulus Cloud Rule violation, especially if showers are able to move directly over the launch pad.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow