Back to Forecasts

KPLO - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Aug 4, 2022 23:03 - 23:13 UTC (19:03 - 19:13 ET)

Issued

Wed Aug 3, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The western Atlantic ridge is diffuse over the Spaceport this morning, with light and variable winds. The influence of the dying low-level boundary across the southeastern US will bring one more day of a slow moving east coast sea breeze with scattered storms this afternoon, though the best chances will remain inland of the Spaceport late evening. A re-strengthening of the ridge will put the area in deep easterly flow through the end of the week. The sea breeze will push quickly inland each afternoon, along with it the highest chances for storms beyond the early afternoon. Occasional onshore moving Atlantic showers and cumulus in the afternoon can’t be ruled out in this pattern, but threat remains low for the early evening launch windows on Thursday and Friday evenings. Along with the gradual increase in moisture, the approach of another easterly wave into Saturday will bring better rain chances overall, including for a second backup launch attempt Saturday evening.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow