Back to Forecasts

NASA Crew-5 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Oct 5, 2022 15:55 - 16:05 UTC (11:55 - 12:05 ET)

Issued

Sun Oct 2, 2022 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Seasonably cool, dry air will continue to filter into central Florida in the wake of Hurricane Ian, as its remnants push to the northeast. Ironically, Hurricane Ian brought the end to the wet season across our area, which is characterized by the daily sea breeze driven shower and thunderstorm activity. Northwest flow the first part of the week will gradually veer northerly to northeasterly as a continental high pressure system slides in from the northwest. A weak cold front will move through the area and spark scattered showers late on Tuesday, but it is expected to be well south of the Spaceport by Wednesday. On launch day, the high will be centered over the southeastern US, bringing breezy northeasterly winds. While a few small, short lived coastal showers cannot be ruled out with the onshore flow, very dry air in the mid and upper levels will cap off any significant activity. Therefore, the primary concerns are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Flight Through Precipitation. By Thursday and Friday, winds will slightly weaken and stay northeasterly as the high slides further south and flattens into a more west-to-east orientation. The dry air will remain in place and the concerns are the same as the primary day.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherMod-High
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow