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SES-22 - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 29, 2022 21:03 - 23:13 UTC (17:03 - 19:13 ET)

Issued

Mon Jun 27, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The weak surface trough responsible for the unsettled weather over the last few days will slowly shift northwest away from the state as high pressure across the central Atlantic builds into northern Florida. The resultant deep easterly flow will still support periods of showers, however a gradual downward trend is anticipated for coastal sections especially during the afternoon and evening hours over the next several days. This pattern also keeps the highest risk for thunderstorms across interior portions of the state each afternoon. An increase in atmospheric moisture is expected to arrive Thursday into Friday ahead of a wave moving in from the Atlantic, resulting in greater cloud cover and higher chances for precipitation across the region. Therefore the primary weather concern for both launch day and in the event of a 24-hour delay is extensive and sufficiently tall cumulus clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow