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Starlink 4-12 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Mar 18 - Mar 19, 2022

Issued

Thu Mar 17, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

An area of low pressure will accelerate northeastward from southern Oklahoma into the northeastern states through the remainder of the week. As this happens, an associated cold front will move across the Gulf Coast states, reaching the western part of the Florida panhandle by the beginning of the launch window. Onshore flow will prevail over the Spaceport, resulting in scattered showers over the ocean with some likely moving inland. Therefore, the primary concern for launch day is the Cumulus Cloud Rule. In the event of a 24-hour delay, the front is expected to make only minimal eastward progression across the Florida peninsula. Low level winds are forecast to switch to a west to southwest direction. While the main front is well north of the area, computer models are indicating a weak convergence boundary will develop near the Space Coast. This boundary may be the focus for additional shower development on Saturday. The primary concern for the back-up day is the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate to High
Solar ActivityLow