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Starlink 4-15 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 14, 2022 20:28 - 20:49 UTC (16:28 - 16:49 ET)

Issued

Thu May 12, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The latest model guidance shows a weak area of low pressure just off the northeastern coast of South Carolina. This feature will continue to move to the southeast as it weakens. Throughout the remainder of the week, this low will dissipate and should be nothing more than a weak trough by Friday afternoon. This trough will continue southwestward into the weekend, but it does not appear there will be much in the way of precipitation associated with the trough over central Florida. During the day on Saturday, however, expect afternoon sea breeze convection to develop over inland areas of central Florida. Forecast soundings show the presence of deep southwesterly winds above the surface. This could help bring anvil clouds back over the Spaceport during the count. The primary weather concerns for the primary day will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Anvil Cloud Rules. In the event of a 24-hour delay, the synoptic weather pattern will be the same as on Saturday. The weak area of low pressure over northern/central Florida will persist. It is possible that this feature will help initiate afternoon convection. Southwesterly winds off the surface will keep the potential for anvil clouds or cumulus clouds over/near the launch pad. The primary weather concerns for the back-up day will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Anvil Cloud Rules.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow