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Starlink 4-17 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 6, 2022 09:21 - 10:21 UTC (05:21 - 06:21 ET)

Issued

Tue May 3, 2022 at 13:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure will remain parked off the western Atlantic through the week, creating prolonged southwesterly flow. This will inspire most afternoon storm activity to focus west of the Spaceport, though a shower or two cannot be ruled out prior to sea-breeze initiation. By Friday morning, a mid-latitude storm system will move through the Mississippi Valley and push the high pressure ridge farther to our east. This will cause our winds to shift to the south-southwest and offshore, which will lower the probability of morning showers impacting the Spaceport during the primary launch window. Aside from possible wind shear aloft, the weather looks excellent for a launch attempt Friday morning, with the Cumulus Cloud Rule being the only concern. Conditions change for the backup window Saturday morning as a cold front begins to approach and dig into the Florida panhandle. Local wind flow becomes more westerly in nature and increases to near 20 mph, and moisture will rise across the spaceport. Higher cloud coverage and isolated showers will be in the forecast for Saturday, but the weather looks decent for the backup launch window, with the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Thick Cloud Layer Rule being the main concerns.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow