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Starlink 4-22 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jul 17, 2022 14:20 - 16:20 UTC (10:20 - 12:20 ET)

Issued

Sat Jul 16, 2022 at 11:45 UTC (07:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The upper level low that was to our east has opened into a weak trough across the state that will persist into Sunday. This will leave the door open for tropical moisture to continue to be pulled northwards across the Florida peninsula. It will be an unsettled day across the Spaceport, with periods of showers and occasional storms. Another batch of convection is expected to develop over South Florida late tonight into Sunday morning and lift north towards the area. With low level and steering flow becoming south to south-southwest, the highest coverage may be just offshore of the Cape, but the associated clouds will be across the entire area. Depending on how quickly this occurs, the window for the primary launch attempt late Sunday morning may be in a lull in activity between overnight storms and those trigged by daytime heating. However even in this lull, abundant mid and upper level clouds in addition to remnant anvils from earlier activity will be a concern in addition to any showers in the vicinity. The deepest moisture moves out on Monday as flow returns back out of the southwest. This will focus afternoon activity back towards the Spaceport, but also bring drier weather in the morning. The main concern for the backup launch day late Monday morning will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule with any early developing showers.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow