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Starlink 4-22 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jul 17, 2022 14:20 - 16:20 UTC (10:20 - 12:20 ET)

Issued

Thu Jul 14, 2022 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A pattern shift will occur to end the week, as the subtropical ridge axis relocates north of the Spaceport for the next few days. Overall, this will bring the best shower and storm chances around midday and early afternoon at the Spaceport, with the focus of activity farther west as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland more quickly in the afternoons and evenings. An upper level low will cross the state from the southeast Friday and Saturday, potentially bringing more unsettled weather. This feature will be out of the area by late Saturday, but in its wake it will bring an influx of tropical moisture across the state. For the primary launch attempt late Sunday morning, expect abundant mid and upper level clouds as a result of this moisture increase along with showers in the vicinity. The primary weather concerns will be the Thick Cloud Rule associated with these clouds and the Cumulus Cloud Rule with any nearby showers. The deepest moisture moves out on Monday as flow returns back out of the southwest. This will focus afternoon activity back towards the Spaceport, but also help bring drier weather in the morning. The main concern for the backup launch day late Monday morning will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule with any early developing showers.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow