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Starlink 4-21 - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jul 7, 2022 13:01 - 14:41 UTC (09:01 - 10:41 ET)

Issued

Tue Jul 5, 2022 at 11:30 UTC (07:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The subtropical ridge axis will remain north of the Spaceport today, keeping the prevailing flow from the southeast. This will lower the chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the Space Coast as the storms will rapidly move inland with the sea breeze. Tomorrow and Thursday the ridge axis will migrate south in response to a weak low pressure area developing along the Eastern Seaboard. This will create southerly flow over the Spaceport, increasing the chances of early afternoon thunderstorms until the sea breeze slowly moves inland. The primary weather concern for a launch attempt Thursday is the Cumulus Cloud Rule associated with the sea breeze. On Friday, the low pressure area will dissipate and the ridge axis will move back north of the Space Coast. This will create southeasterly flow and allow the sea breeze to push inland quickly, lowering the threat of thunderstorms over the Spaceport. The primary weather concern for a launch attempt Friday morning remains the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow