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Starlink 4-27 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 19, 2022 19:14 - 19:34 UTC (15:14 - 15:34 ET)

Issued

Thu Aug 18, 2022 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

There will be little change in the pattern through the end of the week, before a pattern shift arrives for the weekend. A dying frontal boundary to the north will keep weather unsettled, with west-southwest flow holding back the east coast sea breeze and pushing storms towards the Spaceport in the afternoon and evening. This same pattern will continue into the primary launch day on Friday, with east coast sea breeze development not likely until early afternoon, just before the launch window. However, models have trended towards less coverage along this initial development, instead favoring eastward moving storms reaching the Spaceport just after the launch window. Given an otherwise unstable atmosphere, with sea breeze development it is expected that there will be some showers and storms in the area during the window, likely just inland of the launch site. The main threats will be cumulus clouds and lightning associated with showers and storms in the vicinity, some which may drift back towards the launch site. The boundary to the north washes out on Saturday, allowing the ridge axis and drier air to lift north into the proximity of the Spaceport. Light and variable, or even easterly flow, will allow for a one to two hour head start on sea breeze development and inland movement as compared to Friday. While the threats for a backup launch window on Saturday will be similar to Friday, their overall chances will be lower.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Lightning Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow