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Starlink 4-27 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 19, 2022 19:14 - 19:34 UTC (15:14 - 15:34 ET)

Issued

Tue Aug 16, 2022 at 12:15 UTC (08:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The broader pattern across the region will remain similar through Friday, with a weak frontal boundary to the north and the western Atlantic ridge axis south of the state. This will keep low to mid-level flow out of the west-southwest, favoring higher afternoon and evening shower and storm chances for the Spaceport. Coverage will remain lower today due to slightly drier air, but increase mid to late week as higher moisture moves back into the region. For the primary launch day on Friday, the initial development of the sea breeze is expected to occur just before the launch window, jump starting afternoon showers and storms. Ongoing activity will likely be just inland, with the potential for some drifting back towards the launch site. The main threats will be cumulus clouds and lightning associated with any activity. The boundary to the north washes out on Saturday, allowing the ridge axis to lift north into the vicinity of the Spaceport. This lighter flow may allow for a one to two hour head start on sea breeze development, but this will be countered by slower moving storms that may linger across the Spaceport. The threat for a backup launch window on Saturday will be the same as Friday.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Lightning Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Lightning Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow