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Starlink 4-34 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 11, 2022 02:43 - 03:03 UTC (22:43 - 23:03 ET)

Issued

Sat Sep 10, 2022 at 11:45 UTC (07:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Similar to the past few days, another unsettled day is expected for the Spaceport as a very moist and unstable environment continues to stream into the state from the southwest. Brief development will be possible along the east coast sea breeze early afternoon, but better storm chances are expected late afternoon and early evening as storms as ongoing Gulf storms push eastwards across the state. Sunday will be a brief lull in the pattern, with the east coast sea breeze moving inland a little more quickly. However, there will remain a chance of storms at the Spaceport through the afternoon as some move back. Most activity should be winding down by the initial launch window, but lingering anvils or a few outflow showers along the coast cannot be ruled out. The primary weather concerns for the primary launch attempt are the Anvil Cloud Rules and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. The nearly stationary frontal boundary across the Deep South will be re-enforced from the north early week, allowing the boundary to make southward progress into the state. With the front likely overhead or nearby, and plenty of moisture around, the pattern will remain unsettled with a chaotic steering pattern. The east coast sea breeze looks to move far enough inland, with minimal eastward return of storms, that any lingering activity should be well west of the Spaceport for a Tuesday evening launch attempt. The main concerns will remain any anvils that linger through late evening. The primary weather concerns for the backup launch attempt are the Anvil Cloud Rules and Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow