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Starlink 4-34 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 18, 2022 00:16 - 00:35 UTC (20:16 - 20:35 ET)

Issued

Sat Sep 17, 2022 at 00:30 UTC (20:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

What is left of the very persistent frontal boundary that has been across the Florida peninsula for the past week has now degenerated into an inverted trough oriented southwest to northeast across the Cape. Models remain consistent in showing a weak low developing along the northern end of the surface trough, offshore North Florida, which in combination with the eastward slide of the upper-level trough will help usher in a slightly drier airmass into Central Florida. This will bring a small improvement in lowering rain chances Sunday afternoon and evening. Southwesterly upper-level flow will still bring the potential for anvils from inland convection to move into the area during the count, but lighter winds and drier air will make their persistence less likely than previous days. The primary weather concerns for a Sunday evening attempt will be the anvil clouds rules and disturbed weather rule. The remnant low-level inverted trough will hang around for another day into Monday, with the upper-level trough continuing to weaken on its slow slide eastwards. Much more notable drying is expected in the mid and upper levels with this shift, with the region shifting into a more sea breeze driven pattern with lowering rain chances. Though the southwesterly steering component will be light, it will bring a higher potential for what storms do develop to drift back towards the coast. Cumulus from this activity, as well as anvils from inland storms will be the primary weather concerns for a Monday evening launch.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow