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Starlink 4-34 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 11, 2022 02:43 - 03:03 UTC (22:43 - 23:03 ET)

Issued

Fri Sep 9, 2022 at 12:15 UTC (08:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

An upper-level disturbance over the Central Gulf of Mexico will continue to push a very moist and unstable environment into the state, leading to a stormy pattern for the Spaceport over the next few days. The Gulf breeze will remain dominant, with numerous showers and storms pushing eastwards across the state in the late afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the breakdown of this upper-level feature will bring a little drier air and lower coverage, as well as allow the east coast sea breeze to move further inland before thunderstorms develop early afternoon. Upper-level winds will remain from the southwest however, bringing any thunderstorm blow off back towards the Spaceport into the evening. Most activity should be winding down by the initial launch window, but lingering anvils or a few outflow showers reaching the coast cannot be ruled out. The primary weather concerns for the primary launch attempt are the Anvil Cloud Rules and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. A nearly stationary frontal boundary associated with the old upper-level system will drift into northern Florida to start the next week, bringing a quick return of a slower inland moving sea breeze and higher late day storm chances for the Spaceport. The highest chances for storms at the Spaceport will be a few hours before the backup window opens Monday evening, with lingering remnant anvils the main concern into the window. The primary weather concerns for the backup launch attempt are the Anvil Cloud Rules and Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow