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Transporter-4 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Apr 1, 2022 16:14 - 16:34 UTC (12:14 - 12:34 ET)

Issued

Thu Mar 31, 2022 at 12:15 UTC (08:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

After a stretch of beautiful weather in East Central Florida the first half of the week, conditions will deteriorate later today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. By tomorrow, this front will slow down and stall out over the area. This boundary, along with plentiful moisture in place, will bring unsettled weather tomorrow, increasing cloud coverage along with shower and lightning chances. Thus, the primary concerns are the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Surface Electric Fields Rule, and the Thick Cloud Layers Rule. For the backup day on Saturday, the unsettled pattern remains in place as the front lingers over Central Florida. While the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will likely be later in the afternoon, there will still be enhanced cloud coverage and shower chances. The POV is slightly lower, with the same primary concerns as on Friday’s attempt. Models are in better agreement today regarding the location of the front on Monday. The general consensus is that it will be south of the Spaceport, allowing for drier air to move in, onshore flow, and favorable launch conditions. The primary concern is the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow-Mod

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow-Mod
72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow