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Transporter-4 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Apr 1, 2022 16:14 - 16:34 UTC (12:14 - 12:34 ET)

Issued

Wed Mar 30, 2022 at 12:45 UTC (08:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

After a stretch of beautiful weather in East Central Florida, conditions will deteriorate by the end of the week as a strong area of high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast today. This, coupled with a strong low developing over the Midwest, will cause winds to increase and shift to the southeast this afternoon. The low will track to the east tomorrow, dragging a cold front across the Southeastern US. The front will bring generally unsettled weather by Friday, increasing cloud coverage along with shower and lightning chances. Thus, the primary concerns are the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Surface Electric Fields Rule, and the Thick Cloud Layers Rule. For the backup day on Saturday, unsettled weather will remain in place as the front stalls out over Central Florida. Because of this, the POV and primary concerns are the same as on Friday’s attempt. There is still uncertainty regarding the location of the front on Monday. Most of the models do push it farther south, allowing for drier air to move in and favorable launch conditions. However, if it does linger in the area, this would keep the cloud cover and shower/lightning chances. The primary concern is the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow