Back to Forecasts

Transporter-5 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

May 25, 2022 18:25 - 19:24 UTC (14:25 - 15:24 ET)

Issued

Sun May 22, 2022 at 14:00 UTC (10:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Local area of high pressure over the western Atlantic just to the northeast of Florida will bring prevailing low level southeasterly flow to start the week, with a re-enforcing mid-level ridge also building across the state and into the Atlantic. This flow will tap into the drier air to the southeast as a result of the ongoing Saharan Dust event, bringing lower rain chances to the Spaceport into mid-week. The best rain and storm chances each day will likely favor the late morning hours as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. For the primary launch time early Wednesday afternoon, most activity is expected to be inland of the Spaceport, with just a few lingering cumulus clouds and the potential for anvils from activity further west the primary launch concerns. A broad mid-level trough will move into the eastern half of the US by late Wednesday into Thursday, helping to veer low level flow out of the south-southeast and steering flow out of the south-southwest. The result will be an east coast sea breeze that is slower to move inland, bringing a better chances for showers and storms near the area during the backup launch opportunity early Thursday afternoon. Similar to Wednesday, cumulus clouds from nearby activity along with anvils from any ongoing storms will be the main launch concerns.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow