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SILENTBARKER (NROL-107) - L-2 Days

Atlas V

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Valid Period

Sep 8 - Sep 9, 2023

Issued

Thu Sep 7, 2023 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The abnormally dry pattern across East Central Florida will continue for one more day due to below average moisture levels and very stable conditions. By tomorrow, the mid-level ridge will continue to break down as a short wave digs into the southeastern US, increasing both moisture and instability. This, combined with light offshore flow, will significantly increase afternoon thunderstorm chances. By Saturday morning, the Atlantic ridge axis will settle almost directly over the Spaceport, shifting winds to a light southerly flow before the afternoon sea breeze develops. Launch weather conditions generally look favorable in the morning hours, with most of the diurnal shower/storm activity focused over the Atlantic waters. The primary concern is the small risk of a Cumulus Cloud Rule violation. The weather pattern looks very similar for the backup day Sunday, with the same probability of violation and concerns.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow