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L-68 - L-3 Days

Delta IV Heavy

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Valid Period

Jun 20 - Jun 21, 2023

Issued

Sun Jun 18, 2023 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

An unsettled weather pattern is likely to remain in place through at least the middle of the week, characterized by above normal opportunities for showers and thunderstorms each day, with somewhat lesser storm coverage today and perhaps Monday compared to recent days. While the highest threat for storms will target the afternoon and evening hours, there is an elevated risk that some storms and associated clouds may persist into the overnight hours as a series of upper-level disturbances interact with a developing surface boundary across northern Florida. A subtle shift in this boundary and the flow aloft appears to unfold during the latter portions of the week, leading to somewhat more favorable overnight launch weather. Given these considerations, a high threat for showers and storms exists during evening MST rollback operations, with the potential for remnant anvil and cumulus clouds persisting later into the night.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

75%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearNot Cited
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearNot Cited
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearNot Cited
Solar ActivityLow