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Arabsat BADR-8 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 26 - May 27, 2023

Issued

Wed May 24, 2023 at 01:45 UTC (21:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The complex and active weather pattern will remain in place through the remainder of the work week due to a lingering surface boundary, upper-level troughing, and plentiful moisture. As of this evening, a broad area of low pressure has developed along the remnant boundary, and it will continue to deepen and push northwards along the Florida east coast over the next several days. By Friday, the center of low pressure will be off the coast, to the northeast of the Spaceport. The low’s position will bring breezy northerly winds, along with bands of scattered coastal showers. As a result, the main concerns will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Surface Electric Fields Rule associated with these showers. Current model guidance shows us finally breaking out of the wet pattern by Saturday, as the low continues to push northwards, and drier air filters in from the north. Conditions look significantly more favorable, with the only concern being the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow