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Axiom-2 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 21, 2023 21:32 - 21:43 UTC (17:32 - 17:43 ET)

Issued

Thu May 18, 2023 at 14:00 UTC (10:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A stalled boundary across Central Florida will provide added ingredients for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area again today. On Friday, a low will form on the boundary and move north, decreasing the coverage of the storms along the Space Coast. Another boundary begins to move into the Southeast U.S. on Saturday, extending the lower storm coverage near the Spaceport. On Sunday, the boundary will likely be close to Central Florida, again providing a focusing mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. Luckily, the prevailing flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland, keeping most storms away from the Spaceport. Upper-level winds will likely push anvils from the inland storms eastward, making anvil clouds the primary launch weather concern. On Monday, long range guidance suggests a low pressure area will form somewhere on the boundary, creating messy pattern across Central Florida with widespread convection likely. The primary launch weather concerns for a Monday evening attempt include cumulus, debris, and anvil clouds associated with the thunderstorms. The low pressure area will deepen and move towards Bermuda on Tuesday, creating strong onshore flow at the Spaceport and high winds along the ascent corridor. The primary launch weather concerns for a Tuesday attempt are Flight Through Precipitation and the Cumulus Cloud Rule associated with the onshore flow showers.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

20%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Debris Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryHigh
Solar ActivityLow