Axiom-2 - L-3 Days
Falcon 9
Valid Period
May 21, 2023 21:32 - 21:43 UTC (17:32 - 17:43 ET)
Issued
Thu May 18, 2023 at 14:00 UTC (10:00 ET)
Forecast Discussion
A stalled boundary across Central Florida will provide added ingredients for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area again today. On Friday, a low will form on the boundary and move north, decreasing the coverage of the storms along the Space Coast. Another boundary begins to move into the Southeast U.S. on Saturday, extending the lower storm coverage near the Spaceport. On Sunday, the boundary will likely be close to Central Florida, again providing a focusing mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. Luckily, the prevailing flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland, keeping most storms away from the Spaceport. Upper-level winds will likely push anvils from the inland storms eastward, making anvil clouds the primary launch weather concern. On Monday, long range guidance suggests a low pressure area will form somewhere on the boundary, creating messy pattern across Central Florida with widespread convection likely. The primary launch weather concerns for a Monday evening attempt include cumulus, debris, and anvil clouds associated with the thunderstorms. The low pressure area will deepen and move towards Bermuda on Tuesday, creating strong onshore flow at the Spaceport and high winds along the ascent corridor. The primary launch weather concerns for a Tuesday attempt are Flight Through Precipitation and the Cumulus Cloud Rule associated with the onshore flow showers.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Anvil Cloud Rules
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Anvil Cloud Rules
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Debris Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | Moderate |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Flight Through Precipitation
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Anvil Cloud Rules
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | High |
| Solar Activity | Low |