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CRS-27 - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Mar 14, 2023 00:25 - 00:36 UTC (20:25 - 20:36 ET)

Issued

Tue Mar 14, 2023 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Yesterday’s cold front is well south of the area this morning, leading to a cool and dry start to the day. A strong jet stream to the north and approaching mid-level disturbance dropping into the western Gulf of Mexico will both enhance the mid and upper-level cloud cover streaming in from the west. These clouds will be the main launch weather this evening, with the potential for Thick Cloud Layer Rule violations if the cloud bases drop below 18,000 feet. The disturbance will move east of the area on Wednesday, clearing the skies as the surface high center moves into the eastern US. As a result, no significant weather is expected for the backup window Wednesday evening. The next cold front will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico by Friday evening, with the increasing pressure gradient ahead of this system, bringing strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds for the 72-hour delay. Any precipitation is expected to reach the area well after the Friday evening launch window; however, the strong winds will pose a Liftoff Wind concern.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

95%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow