Back to Forecasts

NASA CRS-28 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Jun 4, 2023 16:07 - 16:18 UTC (12:07 - 12:18 ET)

Issued

Sat Jun 3, 2023 at 10:30 UTC (06:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The rapidly weakening TS Arlene near the NW coast of Cuba is forecast to dissipate into tonight, with a second trough developing north of the Bahamas. The changes in sensible weather across the Spaceport will be minimal with abundant moisture and upper-level trough still in place. There will be periods of onshore moving showers and storms, with the highest coverage in the first half of the day, before activity focuses more inland in the afternoon. Into Sunday, the model trend has been for a little less precipitation coverage as perhaps another weak low developing along the second trough backs winds more NNW, or offshore. However, there will still be quite a bit of moisture around as surface heating gets started. Showers and storms in the vicinity will still present the primary weather concern for the primary launch window midday Sunday. High pressure settling into the southeastern US will push a weak boundary through on Monday. Exactly where this boundary reaches by midday will determine how dry conditions may be. For now, it looks like it may be just to the south leading to a lower threat for any convection for the backup window midday Monday. High pressure settles over the area by Tuesday with minimal rain chances and light winds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherMod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow