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CRS-21 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 5, 2020 16:34 - 16:45 UTC (11:34 - 11:45 ET)

Issued

Thu Dec 3, 2020 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Expect warming temperatures today as winds shift onshore, while high pressure ridge remains anchored across the Deep South, keeping conditions dry. This ridge will begin to give way tomorrow, as a low pressure system brewing near the central Gulf Coast begins to shift eastward. Expect rain chances and clouds ahead of the system to begin increasing Friday. A weakening cold front is expected to push through Central Florida near or during the launch window, with most of the associated rainfall impacting the Spaceport prior to the launch. At a minimum, widespread clouds and isolated showers can be expected. Primary weather concerns during the launch window will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Layer Rule, and Flight Through Precipitation. Behind the departing front, weak high pressure will move over Florida, diminishing shower coverage across Central Florida. However, a weak low pressure system may develop across the Central Gulf, which may potentially send an influx of mid-level clouds across the state. The primary weather concerns during the backup launch window will be the Thick Cloud Layer Rule and Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow