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NASA CRS-28 - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 3, 2023 16:29 - 16:40 UTC (12:29 - 12:40 ET)

Issued

Thu Jun 1, 2023 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A complex pattern will be in place across the Florida peninsula to end the week with two areas of low pressure straddling the state in the eastern Gulf and Atlantic. Deep tropical moisture lifted into the state will bring numerous showers and storms each day. While the low in the Gulf has the potential for minimal tropical development, it is currently expected to drift south-southeast into the weekend with little change in impacts to the Spaceport. Northeasterly flow around the broader low will bring in periods of showers and storms that will continue into the primary launch window midday Saturday. The main concern for launch will be if any of this activity setup over the Spaceport during the window. The areas of low pressure will be diminishing into a broader surface trough across the southern part of the state by the end of the weekend as high-pressure noses in from the north. Lingering deep moisture will continue to drive onshore moving showers into the backup window midday Sunday. The weather concerns will remain the same as Saturday. As the high center settles over the southeastern US on Monday, dry air will wrap into the state lowering rain chances. The tradeoff will be brisk northeast flow as it strengthens. The threat for onshore moving showers will remain, though lower.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow