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NASA CRS-28 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 5, 2023 15:42 - 15:53 UTC (11:42 - 11:53 ET)

Issued

Sun Jun 4, 2023 at 15:00 UTC (11:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure settling into the southeastern US is pushing a weak boundary into Central Florida late this morning with a weak low along this boundary offshore NE Florida. A few showers and storms are possible into early afternoon before increasing north-northeast flow shifts better chances inland into the late afternoon. The actual front is expected to push through slowly late tonight into Monday morning with another round of morning showers. Some showers may linger into the launch window midday Monday, but the main weather concern will be the brisk northeasterly flow which may pose a liftoff wind concern. High pressure settles over the area by Tuesday, pushing the persistent deep moisture south of the area. A similar pattern will continue into Wednesday. The development of the east coast seabreeze should just be getting started by the backup launch window midday Wednesday, which will likely be a little to early for significant convective development. However, there will be building cumulus that will pose the main launch concern. The ridge axis will be suppressed to the south by Thursday with modest southwesterly flow holding back seabreeze development near the coast. There may be a few showers starting to develop by the midday launch window on Thursday.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherMod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow
72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow