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Intelsat G-37 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 3, 2023 04:05 - 06:25 UTC (00:05 - 02:25 ET)

Issued

Mon Jul 31, 2023 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

An area of low pressure moving well out over the North Atlantic this morning has left a weak surface boundary across the southeastern US and North Florida. Southwesterly flow today and Tuesday ahead of this feature will push storms back towards the Spaceport in the afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms possible. By Wednesday, this boundary is expected to be south of the area as high pressure over the Northeastern US becomes dominant and shifts prevailing low-level flow onshore. This will push storms away from the Spaceport into interior and western Florida during the afternoon and evening, with only a small concern for anvils to linger in their wake during the primary launch window late Wednesday night. There will also be a limited threat for onshore moving Atlantic showers. The surface high moves out into the Atlantic on Thursday, keeping low level flow onshore, though lighter, as its axis slides overhead. Not much change in local weather over the Spaceport from Wednesday, but a better chance of storms across North Florida brings a small increase in the threat for anvil clouds to reach the Spaceport during the backup window late Thursday night.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow